The picture for pulse acreage in 2023 is complex. Since the outbreak of war in Ukraine commodity prices have risen sharply, with acreage sometimes growing at the expense of pulses. Although commodity prices have since begun to fall, issues with the Black Sea Grain Corridor could see a price rebound of up to 15%. Climatic conditions are also proving to be an issue for pulse crops across the Americas – Argentina’s bean crops have been devastated by a third year of drought thought to be the worst in 60 years.

Competing commodity production on the rise

Since the war in Ukraine, prices for corn and wheat have shot up, creating jumps in acreage as farmers have looked to take their advantage.

A US State Department of Agriculture (USDA) report on the 7th July estimated global wheat production at 796.7 MMT – a 0.8% increase from 2022 and 4% above the five year average. Corn has also become competition for pulses around the world, and its global production is expected to hit new highs of around 1224.5 MT for 2023/24 due to record acreage.

Oilseeds – particularly canola and soybeans – represent another competitor for acres. While the 7th July USDA figures forecast a 4.5% drop in soy acres year-on-year for 2023/24, other notable producers, like Brazil, look set to continue expanding their soybean acres.

National acreage of soybeans in Brazil has expanded on average around 4.5% during the last five years, with this year’s production growing by 11%. A positive for pulses is that soybeans are mostly grown during the first crop of the year, whereas pulses come in the second, ‘Safrinha’ harvest. 

The issue arises when high returns from soybeans aren’t equalled by pulse crops, explained Carla Borges of NG Trade in her most recent Pulse Pod Trade Talk: “Last season Brazil had record prices for soybeans — 266% higher per ton than now — and that expectation transfers to the second harvest where pulses are grown. The result was very high prices to source sesame seed and beans, high costs for road and ocean freight and weak demand for those particular crops.”

Poor return on investment for pulse farmers may lead to reduced acreages next year, though by how much is difficult to say. Some pulse classes that previously served as good crops for rotation, such as mung beans, are no longer financially viable for Brazilian farmers, says Borges. This is because mung demand has dropped due to the usual importers having issues with foreign exchange reserves. A good crop in India also led to the Indian government placing restrictions on mung imports into the country – although this has recently been lifted for one year.

Drought in Argentina curbs bean production, but acreage grows

Speaking in May of this year, Ivan Martin, Trade Manager of bean specialist and exporter, Alimar, believed that high commodity prices may impact some bean acres, but that others are guaranteed to remain: "In the production zones of the North there are many areas that will continue to grow beans for reasons of climate – producers would simply continue to grow beans regardless of prices. But there are producers that may find it convenient to grow other things.” 

Worries about acreage have turned out not to be as pressing as problems with drought. Pulse Atlas data shows that some pulse production has dropped drastically, with alubia beans down over 32% from last year. However, acreage in all pulses apart from mung (down 4000 ha) have remained stable or risen in the 2023 pulse seedings: Cranberry bean acreage went up by more than 15%, and both green and yellow pea acreage – only seeded in June and July – have reportedly risen by over 25%.

Chickpeas have also increased their acreage in 2023, according to Lucas Genero of Agrofin: "Seeded area has gone up by almost 100%. We had around 40-45,000 hectares in 2022, whereas this year we are already close to 100,000 hectares.”

Drought continues to plague Argentina’s pulse crops however, significantly dampening production volumes for alubias and black beans in 2023.

North America

This year‘s pulse acreage in Canada has taken a significant hit year-on-year. The two largest pulse crops: lentils and dry field peas acreage decreased by 15.1% and 9.7% respectively. Competitor crops soybeans and canola have seen a rise in acreage of 6.8% and 3.2% respectively.

Canadian chickpeas have made the biggest jump in 2023, increasing 35% year-on-year up to 316,000 acres. This higher production should be offset by a lower carry-in from 2022-23.

The USA is thought to have increased canola by 3.5%. Jeff Van Pevenage of Columbia Grain explains: “If you go out and look at Washington or Idaho, they used to be the main area for pulses 20 years ago. Now, they're fighting a lot of issues with Italian rye grasses in the wheat crops, and the only way to really deal with that and make their land healthier is to use canola. So they're adding that into the rotation, taking away primarily from chickpea and green lentil acres – Washington and Idaho have gone from about 50,000 acres of canola a year to 150,000 acres with a big chunk coming out of the pulse crops.”

Commodity prices have created a downward push on pulses, says Van Pevenage: “If you get out into Montana and North Dakota – big acres for pulse crops – it really has more to do with people asking: ‘What are my options? If wheat prices are high, I'm going to go to wheat’. This is the case for soy in North Dakota, because they're building a lot of soybean crushing facilities there with all the bio renewable fuel credits.”

While the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) suggested in December that renewable fuel volumes would actually be below current production for 2023 to 2025, others disagree. A US soy industry consultant, Gordon Denny, is quoted on Feednavigator.com predicting that crush capacity for oil seeds will increase 25% between 2023 and 2025. 

Orion Roy-Wright, a Trader Manager for Edible Beans at ADM, also cites commodity prices as a strong motive for a drop in US pulse acreage: “I think the main driver is that soybeans, corn and wheat are all paying basically record levels, but I’d say that’s just the ebb and flow of the market more than a large overall trend.” 

Even with these threats to acreage, the overall picture for 2023 suggests a positive picture for edible beans across the US in 2023, with overall acreage up from 1,114,865 acres to 1,194,611 acres – a 7.2% rise year on year.

As for dry peas, the numbers point to an increase of 9% in dry pea acreage, with much of the extra acres planted in North Dakota. Canadian dry pea production is forecast to be far lower than last year, so it is likely the US will continue to export peas across the border. US Lentil acreage, on the other hand, has fallen by 21% year-on-year, due to a much lower area seeded in Montana.

 A swing away from grains may be coming

Orion Roy-Wright suggests that US pulses may be simply having a year of cooling after rapid growth in certain areas, such as plant-based demand, which could be finding a more sensible level: 

“I think what we've seen is maybe an overbuild on some of those niche markets, even in the protein space. Everybody knows a market can't go straight up, so it needs to take a step back. We may be seeing a bit of a consolidation prior to another round of growth.”

On the future of pulse acreage, Roy-Wright remains optimistic: 'I don't think there is a long-term trend that we're going to see pulse acreage deteriorating – I think acreage will continue to grow.'

In Brazil, says Carla Borges, pulse acreage may rise as a result of the new land being cleared for crops such as soybeans: “…This (new farmland) means pulses might be an option when the land isn't so old and the farmer prefers not to invest in corn. They may see cowpeas, or something similar, as less of a risk.”

"Here in Mato Grosso,” she says, “five years ago there were no pulses and no sesame. Now we're producing a lot of it – in states like Tocantins and Pará which are the size of some European countries, or even bigger. So there is compensation for pulses, I think, due to the increasing area for agriculture in general.”

Ivan Martin is wary of the threat that high commodity prices can make to Argentinian pulse acreage, but feels confident that pulses can remain strong after a difficult year of drought: "I believe that as long as pulses continue to have good prices, the situation can be resolved, and strong levels of acreage can be retained.”

Market analyst and CEO of Stat Publishing, Brian Clancey, shares the traders’ optimism for a bounce back to seeding more pulses: "The war in Ukraine has had a powerful influence on global grain prices, which at some point in time is going to spread over into greater interest in pulses and oilseeds. We may see a shift away from grains in certain parts of the world in 2024/25 that could continue into 2026."

With the recent breakdown of the Black Sea Grain Corridor, global wheat/oilseed supplies are once again in doubt and it remains to be seen whether this means commodity prices will remain high for another year and what effect this could have on pulses. However, for now, the long-term outlook for acreage in the Americas seems positive, and any concerns about a drop appear to be premature.