November 7, 2023
Shyam Narsaria, CEO of Arvee International and head of OATA Myanmar, talks to Luke Wilkinson about the upcoming pulse seedings, black matpe stocks, and how pigeon pea prices are behaving.
We are doing very well internationally, in fact over the last year our turnover in pulses has increased by 20-25%. We are also moving into new markets such as rice and yellow maize, as well as adding some spices like ginger and turmeric to our profile.
It is very difficult to get accurate information about Myanmar – the best information you can find is attained by averaging the last 5-10 years and assessing current market sentiments. I have a team of people working for me who work mainly in this research, trying to understand acreage.
Black matpe is our biggest pulse with a production last year of around 800,000 MT. Of that quantity, 594,000 MT had already been exported by October 31st, leaving us with a current balance of around 200,000 MT. The second most important is green mung bean, which had a production of around 450,000 MT last year, then thirdly is pigeon peas, which were around 280,000 MT.
We’ve seen a rise in consumption in the Middle East and Pakistan but the main cause is Indian demand. During the last 2-3 years we witnessed a shortage in Indian black matpe production, so that is a big reason for growing demand and increased production in Myanmar.
The second reason is that there's been a price rise, which has helped the farmers. Myanmarese farmers are also very focused on price – just like they are in India or anywhere around the world. If we get a better price, they want more soil and until now it has been a very profitable venture for them. The Indian open general license policy set to continue until 31st March 2024 also significantly boosted black matpe production.
Finally, there is our climate, which has been extremely favorable for the last 2-3 years. We have been blessed with six months of monsoon rains from May through to the end of October – this means our soil has had plenty of moisture and is perfect for growing black matpe.
Current black matpe prices are around $1080-$1100 FOB, and we could see another 2-5% rise as the Indian black matpe crop is reported to be around 25-30% short. Long-term, a stable price for black matpe is around $800-$900 FOB. A new crop of around 30,000-40,000 MT of black matpe will come from upper Myanmar in November, so we may see a price reduction sometime in December. Last year, pigeon peas were around 280,000 [MT] and this year pigeon pea prices are really good – around 50-60% more than this time last year, so it's encouraging farmers. As we've seen great rainfall this year in the pigeon peas areas, I'm expecting a crop of around 320,000-350,000 MT. Pigeon pea prices right now are the highest I've witnessed in the last 23 years – around $1350 – $1400 FOB. From the first or second week of December, we should have the new crop and I'm expecting around 325,000-350,000 MT. From then the price will come down and should be in the range of $1000-$1050 FOB. Everything depends on Indian production as the Indian price is very good this year after the government raised the minimum support price. I feel their production will increase, but I’m not sure how much. There are other factors, such as potential exports from Africa, but I still feel those price estimates will be accurate. Roughly 95% of pigeon peas (260,000 MT approximately) go to India, then the 5% remaining goes to the UAE, or as processed pulses to Europe, the US, Canada, and Australia. As for other pulses, of the 800,000 MT black matpe crop, roughly 650,000 tons go to India. India currently has a restriction on green mung bean imports so all of our 400,000 MT crop goes to China and other South Asian countries, Europe, and North America. There are similar smaller crops such as black-eyed beans, production of which is around 50,000 MT – this goes mainly to the Middle East and Europe. We also have a red kidney bean crop of around 30,000 MT. It is still raining in Myanmar but not like last month, just a shower or two. But it will help with sowing and encourage farmers that they will have better production. Without the restriction, I believe green mung bean production would be around 600,000 MT, with half of that going to India. I head up the Overseas Agro Traders Association in Myanmar and we have sent a letter to the Indian government to persuade them to consider reopening green mung bean imports. We expect that India will open up soon. Yes, changes in communication have picked up over the last 10 years – WhatsApp groups, and messaging services that help traders and farmers get information in real-time. Farmers can hear about any small change in India or around the world and respond quickly. For example, last year there was a pigeon pea shortage and farmers picked it up immediately and took advantage. There are three or four research companies in India that give us a real picture of shortages, production, demand, and supply – these help farmers in Myanmar to get on-time information straight to their smartphones. What kind of prices are you expecting for Myanmar’s black matpe this year?
Another crop that has seen a shortage in India is pigeon peas – how has this affected Myanmar's production decisions? What kind of production are you expecting?
Where do you see pigeon pea prices this year?
How much of that crop will be sold to India, and what other pulses from Myanmar will go to India this year?
How is the restriction on green mung bean affecting Myanmar?
You mentioned that farmers grew the size of their black matpe acreage because of high prices – are farmers very sensitive to price changes across the country? How is demand/price communicated?
Myanmar / Shyam Narsaria / Arvee International / OATA / pigeon pea / black matpe / green mung bean / India mung imports
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