Pakistani pulses in focus/
Chickpea, yellow pea and lentil imports with Tayyab Balagamwala

Tayyab on…markets as they stand

• In pulses what is keeping us busy these past two months is black matpe and desi chickpeas, as well as kabulis. We are anticipating India removing the duty on kabulis so a lot of people are stocking up. 
• This year has been interesting, with India being short on chickpeas. Pakistan is a major importer of chickpeas, mainly from Australia and mostly bulk vessels from there. We did a bulk vessel with 25 thousand tonnes two weeks back and foresee up to five more bulk vessels coming into Pakistan, as well as containers.
• Chickpeas prices have skyrocketed - they’ve broken all records with local prices going above 300 Pakistani rupees per kg. Even though international chickpea prices are down, current prices locally are in excess of $900.
• We are monitoring the situation of what we can get promptly or within the next month because we all know Australia has a big crop coming up and we feel prices will start tapering down from December onwards.

…yellow peas

• Other than that, we’ve also done one vessel of yellow peas. We are monitoring the market and we are a bit bearish on yellow peas considering India has 2 million tonnes of stocks, according to what we heard at the recent conference in Tanzania.
• We feel India won’t extend the imports and if that happens, yellow pea might get cheaper. Plus historically when the new crop comes in the Black Sea, prices do come down. 

… lentils

• Some crimson and nipper has been traded. We did 6 thousand tonnes of nipper in the same vessel of chickpeas from Australia. Now prices for both have come down in Pakistan. 
• Supply is sufficient because lots of containers have been booked of both nippers and crimson, and Canadian prices are falling. 
• There’s also a lot of cargo coming in compared to chickpeas, where Russian deliveries are taking time and there’s a moisture issue plus Tanzania is delayed. All these containers of chickpeas that were supposed to come were not booked because everyone felt prices would come down and they did not. 
• We have a continuous supply of lentil coming in and our lentil consumption is not that high. Demand is not such that if we import an excess we can sell it easily. 

…kabuli chickpea prices 

• Russia is selling at very good levels, $700-$750 depending on quality and that is why other origins are not selling that well in Pakistan because Russia is dominating the market. 
• USA kabulis are coming to some extent, we foresee that will increase; also there is a USDA delegation going in mid September to the USA to meet suppliers of USA kabulis. They sell well in Pakistan. The impact of Russian prices has been on Australian and other origins, which haven't been selling much to Pakistan of late.
• We foresee some quantity of Canadian kabulis starting to come in with the new crop and prices have come down below $900 from $1000-$1100 and the quality is higher than Russia and sells well. 

… India opening to kabulis

• Russian kabuli is being bought regularly in anticipation of India removing the duty. They are expected to open in September - but whether it happens or not, people anticipate prices will go up.
• We are buying only CNF Karachi basis without the ‘three port’ option. We have a good relationship with our suppliers, these are the guys who have performed when markets jumped $100. 
• We work with a limited number of buyers and they have performed also when the market has fallen. We are confident and don’t foresee any diversions happening; if there were, it would only be with mutual consent. 
• We prefer not to go for the three port options being sold, because we know if India removes the duty, this will definitely go over. Pakistan might not be able to match those prices in the short term.

…supply chain issues out of Australia

• We are only working with the top 8-10 exporters over there, who will honor their commitment regardless of the market. 
• The other interesting part is that everyone, despite the festivals in India, believes that demand will start to slow down after December 15. 
• Even though Ramadan demand will be there for Pakistan and Bangladesh too, we anticipate prices will fall and that trend is already evident because container prices have fallen over the past week. 
• With such a high crop, we feel that India might take 700-800 thousand tonnes, 200 thousand will go to Bangladesh and Pakistan will get its due share of 150-200 thousand.
• The Australians also want Pakistan in the market because right now it’s bullish and the prices are high but when they have a huge crop and India is not there Pakistan is a huge importer from them.