“It will make sense for Brazil to continue working with India”/
G. Chandrashekar on Indian production and imports

G. Chandrashekar on the kharif crop

• Between June and September India had reasonably good distribution of rainfall in major pulse growing regions, which means pigeon pea, black matpe, and mung beans, have seen a major rebound in acreage. Last year, acreage was around 11.9 million ha, this year it went up to 12.9 million ha.

• At the end of September, I estimated the kharif pulse crop at 8.5 MMT, but there were unseasonable rains – even hail storms and floods in some regions in October, all of which damaged some of the crop. As a result I revised my estimate to 8 MMT – this is still 1 MMT more YoY, but below the 9.5 MMT target set by the government.

• In early November, the government gave a first kharif estimate. To my utter surprise, they placed the crop size at 6.9 MMT – even lower than last year's rain-damaged crop. However, the government stressed that after crop cutting surveys are complete, only then can they revise the estimate to a more accurate figure. I am absolutely certain the number will be revised closer to 8 MMT in the next round.
  
  

…on the upcoming rabi crop

• For the rabi crop we plant desi chickpeas, lentils, and around one million ha of field peas as well as small quantities of black matpe and mung. Planting has been slow because of the extended rainfall in October, but is now picking up pace. There has been a delay on reports of planting progress from the Ministry of Agriculture, but there is always a time lag between the provincial governments and the central government.

• Initial numbers suggest that pulse seeding was lagging compared to last year, and there is talk of some expansion of wheat acreage. I would say that it is premature to be speculating on what that all means – initial numbers show wheat planting is also lagging compared to last year. I think it would be dangerous to jump to conclusions based on initial trends.

• Rabi pulse crops take up around 16 million ha of land, of which between 10-11 million ha are for desi chickpeas. At this time I don't see pulse crops losing acreage – primarily because soil moisture conditions are very good and prices are fairly attractive, which should provide encouragement to farmers. We are all speculating that maybe farmers have shifted from chickpeas to wheat, or wheat to chickpeas or rapeseed, but if they have, these pockets are highly regional and we can't extend this to the whole country.
  
  

…rabi desi chickpea estimates

• The government overestimated the size of chickpea crops over the last 2-3 years – they talked about 13 MMT/13.5 MMT when you could see that the crop size on the ground was 10.5 MMT/11 MMT. Maybe they wanted to show the strong performance of the pulse sector, but in the end, reality will catch up. You can't fool the market participants for long!

• Last year, after an initial estimate for desis was made for 13.5 MMT, I met with the secretary of the Ministry of Food and explained that I believe this was an overestimation, and any policy intervention based on this would not give the government the desired result. After two months, prices started to rise and in the next estimate they reduced it down to 12.2 MMT. In reality it was probably closer to 11 MMT. In the case of the Rabi crop this year, the target harvest for Chana is 13.6 MMT – I don't think we will reach that.

• Even if we reach 11 MMT, it should be a satisfactory crop for India as I don't see India's consumption moving above 10 MMT. I suspect consumption will be 9.5 MMT maximum.
  
  

…on importing desi chickpeas into India this year

• I think we'll have a small surplus production, but how that will have an impact on prices we will need to wait and see. We are also importing huge quantities of yellow peas as well as importing chickpeas themselves. How much carryover stock that will be as of March 31st will determine the future trajectory of prices.

• My own very strong sense is that the Indian government will make a call on extending the duty-free import window sometime in the second half of January, once they've assessed the situation in terms of acreage, rainfall, and progress of pulse crops. Anybody who says they know that it will be extended or not right now would be purely speculating, in my opinion.
  
  

…on India's trade relationship with Brazil

• I advised the Brazilian Institute of Beans and Pulses (IBRAFE) to target India, which is mutually beneficial because Brazil has access to the world's largest market for pulses, and India is keen to diversify its sources of supply. Black matpe and pigeon pea sources in Africa and Myanmar have presented some challenges that can potentially put suppliers at risk, so diversifying sources is logical.

• Brazil has everything needed to be a big supplier. Six months ago I was keynote speaker at the Brazilian Superfood Summit and talked specifically about the need for Brazil and India to come together and, if need be, sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). This would help Brazilian farmers feel more encouraged to plant and give Indian consumers more certainty regarding the source of supplies. The Indian government can't give any guarantees, as imports are a function of demand, supply, prices, market conditions, and so on, but it will make sense for Brazil to continue working with India.

• The only challenge for Brazilian suppliers is the long voyage time and higher ocean freight costs. But what can you do? God has placed them in the southern hemisphere and you can't wish the distance away. It just means their production has to be more efficient and our prices have to be more competitive.

• I am about to travel to Brazil as the Indian ambassador has asked for my help in catalyzing partnerships between Indian entities and Brazilian entities in the areas of agriculture, agribusiness, research, technology, and investment – so I'll be working towards those things while I'm there.
  
  

…on introducing Brazilian carioca beans to India

• There is definitely a market for carioca beans in India, but the Indian market is highly price conscious – price will be a determining factor.

• Indian consumers are now ready to try different varieties of pulses and foods in general, but the qualities of carioca beans will be important. How successful they are in the Indian market will depend on price, but also the look of carioca beans, their nutritional properties – bioavailability and bio absorption – and how easy they are for people to cook and digest. I think Brazil needs to research this, and I have strongly recommended sending some consignments to India to have them tested and prepared for blind testing and trials with catering institutions so that students can get interested in them.

• In the end, you can't expect India to present itself on a platter – markets must be cultivated. Brazilians have to earn the Indian market, but it is possible to do that.

• I don't see carioca beans as a pulse that could replace any pulses existing in the Indian market, but rather as an extra pulse that can augment supplies rather than taking market share. It will depend on the marketing, of course, and how well carioca beans blend with other Indian food products.
  
  

…on the decline in Indian pulse production

• There has been a steady decline in Indian pulse production over the last three years – we produced 27.3 MMT in 2021/22, then 26 MMT in 2022/23 – 1.3 MMT lower YoY. Last year, they produced 24.2 MMT – 1.8 MMT lower again YoY. Clearly there is a rate of the climax increasing and does present quite a scary situation.

• There are multiple factors that contribute to this. Firstly, yields are quite low which means production is low given that available land is limited. Water shortage, climate change, cultivation on marginal lands, low-level of agricultural inputs used, agronomic factors, and a lack of real breakthrough in seeds technology – all of these contribute, and there are many more variables.

• These are all real challenges that are particularly affecting pulses, and I have argued year after year in public forums for a review of pulse production policy. Climate change over the last 23 years has shown that unseasonal rainfall and extended monsoons are hurting pulses production, so we need climate smart agriculture and climate resilient crops. It is a daunting task, but it is doable. It just requires enormous political will, perseverance, financial investment, and technological investment.

• We need to review our minimum support price system, our procurement system, and our trade and tariff policy offer – our trade and tariff policy is not proactive, it is reactive. I'm also keen to go to every rooftop shouting that we need to boost our consumption – our levels of consumption are pathetic! Per capita availability is around 14 kg, but the recommended per capita consumption is 20 kg.