Bad weather spells trouble for Mexico’s bean harvest/
An interview with Pancho Gutiérrez

In a year marked by widespread uncertainty across multiple fronts—the ongoing pandemic, catastrophic weather events, political turmoil, to name a few—we have come to accept most short or medium-term forecasts with a grain of salt. This certainly applies to the pulses industry, where we see unpredictable climate patterns throw growers for a loop, time and time again.

What’s happening currently in Mexico’s bean industry is a prime example of such volatility. Just over a month ago during the GPC’s most recent Black Beans Global Outlook webinar, Francisco “Pancho” Gutierrez of Agronegocios del Norte gave us a decidedly rosy picture of the country’s black bean production. He expected an overall improvement over the previous year’s harvest thanks to sufficient rainfall and mild temperatures in the main growing regions of northern Mexico. Since then, the weather in his state of Durango and the others where beans are grown has taken a sharp turn for the worse. With the harvest set to begin in about two weeks, this has cast significant doubt over what was expected to be an average or above-average harvest.

We caught up with Mr. Gutierrez over the phone this week, where he kindly shared the latest information on an evolving situation that will surely affect North America’s bean trade this year.

I understand there have been some developments regarding the production of beans in Mexico since you participated in the GPC Black Beans Global Outlook webinar on September 28. Could you tell us about that?

There has been some concern among those who participated in the last webinar because the  numbers we had estimated have been fluctuating due to weather conditions here. When we presented that information, we had estimated an annual production of around 400 thousand metric tons, and since then we’ve had a very severe, very intense drought here in the north of the country where we’ve had absolutely no rain since then.

And this has affected not just your state of Durango but Mexico’s other major bean-growing states as well? 

That’s correct. This has occurred in the entire bean-producing region where the plant had been developing quite well. It had rained a lot. The result of this drought is that we expect yields to be down by as much as 60 percent in the production of beans.

We should keep in mind that any numbers we estimate are not a true reflection of reality because right now we are just beginning the cutting and threshing process, but based on the reports we’re receiving from the local grower associations, we think production could be down at least 50%. From 400 thousand metric tons we could see a full 50% drop, so less than 200 thousand metric tons.

That’s pretty significant. I suppose that means Mexico will need to import more beans this year than originally predicted?

That’s right. Based on the numbers that we had estimated, in any case we will need to bring in beans from other countries to meet our national demand. We’re always looking to import beans from the United States, which is a major producer that we know has available stocks. We understand they had a good harvest this year. If there is a limitation on what we can import from the United States, the next country we would look to that has supplied us with beans in the past—albeit in very small volumes but they have had opportunities to send beans to Mexico—is Argentina.

We would need to wait until next year when they wrap up their harvest. I believe that they begin to plant there around March. They could have beans available for next year when it's summer here in Mexico. So that would be an estimate. Argentina of course would have to determine their seeded area and begin planting there in February of next year.

Does Canada ever come into play as a black bean supplier in these situations?

Well, Canada has offered certain volumes, but if we’re talking about black beans the amount that Canada would have available to send to Mexico would be rather insignificant. Any Canadian black beans that have made it to Mexico have most likely gone through an American company.

I read a comment by Dan Sturt, a broker with DW Sturt & Co, who predicted that sales of pinto beans from Canada to Mexico could triple in 2020-2021. Do you agree with him? 

Well, I do think we’re also going to have issues with our pinto bean production. We will definitely need to import pinto beans this year. We are experiencing issues with production in the areas where both varieties are found, pinto and black. We are going to have shortages in both bean varieties.

Do you have any further comments you would like to add?

When we did the webinar, I mentioned to everyone that the data that we were presenting still depended a lot on natural factors such as water and issues like early frosts. We experienced an early frost that arrived in Zacatecas and into Durango which is expected to decrease bean yields somewhat. We had some other frosts about 20 days ago —you know beans are very sensitive—and that also complicated things for us. And we’re expecting a cold front coming into Mexico in a couple of days in Zacatecas that could also cause issues because of the low temperatures. If we have another early frost it could decrease black bean yields even further. Black beans especially. The pintos are already cut but there is a percentage of black beans that has not been cut. So we can see that it’s coming in over there in Chihuahua, where there has already been a sharp drop in temperature, and it has been coming down into these areas.