“Acreage may create the headlines, but in the end, it is yields that create prices”/
Harsha Rai on India’s rabi crop and falling import needs

Hi Harsha! Can you give us an update on the progression of the different rabi pulse crops? 

India’s rabi pulse crop is shaping up to be broadly comfortable this season, with chana setting the tone.

Chana acreage is significantly higher year-on-year — 500,000 hectares according to the government number — and if weather conditions remain stable through February and March, we could see a stronger harvest compared to last year. That would naturally reduce any immediate import urgency and create a softer undertone in the post-harvest chana market.

Lentil acres appear stable in official data, but ground sentiment suggests it may be slightly tighter. Uttar Pradesh is reducing acreage every year, and the extended rainfall until mid-November provided good soil moisture that encouraged farmers to favor wheat, which offered better price prospects and lower risk. As a result, lentil output may not expand meaningfully.

Fieldpea acreage is marginally lower, keeping that segment relatively sensitive. Rabi urad has improved modestly; however, structurally India remains dependent on imports — primarily from Myanmar, with Brazil increasingly emerging as an additional origin as its production expands each year.

At this stage, acreage provides comfort, but the market will closely watch weather conditions through harvest, as yield realization will ultimately define supply availability and trade flows ahead. Acreage may create the headlines, but in the end, it is yields that create prices.