Shortfalls in sight?/
The Yellow Bean Crop in Sinaloa

Some predictions in the Mexican press that the yellow bean crop in Sinaloa would fall short of demand look to have been somewhat premature. Suggestions that the acreage would not go above 40,000 hectares have already already proven incorrect, however, some discrepancy is still likely. 

It was reported in Debate that the market demand would be around 143,000 tons, whilst the production would barely reach 105,000 tons - a 38,000 ton shortfall. As of early November, permits had been distributed to cover 35,903 hectares. 

Cristobal López, the general manager of Comercializadora de Granos Los Arbolitos and expert in the yellow bean market, explained: “I think it will get up to a maximum of 55,000.” Asked what acreage would be ideal to cover demand, he replied: "50,000 wouldn't be enough, 60,000 would be about right and 70,000 would be more than enough.”

The Sistema de Validación y Seguimiento Agricola reports that early estimations have been overtaken and currently the total land registered for seeding sits at 49,020 Hectares as of 8th December. This is split between Valle del Fuerte (14,710.26); Valle de Culiacan (3,856.61); Valle de Guasave (15,173.07); Valle de Evora (10,212.56); Valle de Sinaloa de Leyva (4,186.17); Quila (178), and Elota (36.50). There are also 5.75 Hectares land registered for seeding pinto bean in Valle del Fuerte.

There are other factors, such as the new varieties that will affect the productivity of the final yield. López continued: "There will be around 30% minimum of acreage seeded with the new ‘Reyna’ variety, which is a lot more productive, and furthermore we have a very high carryover from the previous year."

But will that be enough to meet the needs of the market?

“It’s possible that there could be a shortfall,” said Lopez, but noted there was “at least 20,000 tons of carryover to take into account.”

Adverse weather conditions may also prove to have had a negative effect on the crop. A producer in the Sinaloa region, Manolo Morales Gomez, who has seeded both the Reyna and Azufrado varieties of the yellow bean, has some doubts about the yield: “We’re expecting a reduction, as the early beans are damaged due to the recent hot weather. The northern zone of Sinaloa had very early rainfall, so the beans there could be damaged too.”

What the final numbers will be is a topic of some debate. Felipe Sandoval, CEO of BeGrait, explained: “We have two official sources for information about acreage: one from the state and one federal. Very often, they are different. The state says that the acreage is 50,000 hectares, and the federal source says there will be 65,000 hectares. Personally, I think we will have between 55 and 60,000.” 

Asked what his prediction would be for the final yield, he replied: “Two tons per hectare.” A yield that would produce between 110-120,000 tons, assuming an acreage between 55 and 60,000 ha.

When questioned about the prospect of a shortfall of yellow beans, he was optimistic that it would be avoided: “Everything will depend on commercial strategies, and other factors such as pricing versus other bean varieties. If prices were to rise above those of the pinto bean, for example, there wouldn't be a shortfall." He continued, "there is a lot to discuss on this topic, but in my opinion, if we balance production and national consumption there will be enough beans to satisfy demand."