September 22, 2021
Indian government pulses production estimate is overstated, assert experts.
The first advance estimate of Kharif crop production released by the Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India on September 21, 2021 has placed Kharif 2021-22 pulse crop production at 9.45 million tons lower than the season’s production target of 9.82 million tons.
Source: Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Govt of India
(Note: Tur/arhar = Pigeon pea; Urad = Black matpe; Moong: Green gram)
The planted area for pulses this season has increased by about 300,000 hectares to a new high of 14 million hectares. However, the temporal and spatial distribution of southwest monsoon rains has been less than satisfactory.
As of September 17, the country had an overall deficit of 4 percent in total rainfall. Ten out of the 36 meteorological subdivisions showed deficient precipitation. Some subdivisions are borderline cases close to the deficient zone. There is nothing to suggest that yields have improved dramatically.
Insofar as pulses are concerned, the government’s first estimate for 2021-22 has overstated pulses harvest size by at least one million tons. This author places the crop size not more than 8.5 million tons. One may recall, even in 2020-21 season, the government first estimated Kharif pulses crop at 9.3 million tons; but gradually reduced that number in the subsequent estimates.
The fourth estimate for 2020-21 showed Kharif pulses production of 8.69 million tons which in reality, this author believes, was closer to 8.5 million tons. This year too, the government may gradually reduce the harvest size in subsequent estimates. The next estimate is due in February 2022.
The market is the final arbiter of supply and demand. Market participants are unlikely to be influenced by overstated production data even if from official sources. Over the coming weeks, the market will face harvest pressure and prices may show a softening tendency. However, once arrivals begin to taper, prices will begin to firm up again.
(G. Chandrashekhar, senior editor and policy commentator, is agribusiness and commodities market specialist. Views are personal. He can be reached at: gchandrashekhar@gmail.com)
India / Kharif / G. Chandrashekhar / Tur / Pigeon pea / Urad / Black matpe / Moong / Green gram
Disclaimer: The opinions or views expressed in this publication are those of the authors or quoted persons. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Global Pulse Confederation or its members.
