Desi chickpea Australia to India July price survey/
Trade sentiment revealed in a market poll

Desi chickpeas have been a hot topic ever since the Indian government announced the lifting of the import duty on May 3. As soon as the announcement went out, the international price per metric tonne (MT) immediately took off. From around $750 CNF before the policy change, it kept increasing for four straight weeks throughout May, before finally stabilizing at approximately $915/tonne CNF basis Australia to India in the first week of June. 

Considering the sizable deficit between demand and production in India this year, the question as to who will step in to supply the nation remains to be seen. According to the Government of India’s Third Advance Estimate, India’s desi chickpea crop is expected at around 11.5 million tonnes. Trade members, however, believe the production will not be more than 9 million tonnes. Considering India’s domestic demand for in the last five years has averaged close to 12 million tonnes, the deficit would in this case stand at a minimum of 3 million tonnes.

Reducing the deficit

On the origin side, there are two major contenders that can supply India: Australia and Tanzania. 

Making up the lion’s share, Australia is expected to produce a bumper crop of 1.15 million tonnes, almost two and a half times the production of last year after growers jumped to seed 730 thousand hectares off the back of the government of India’s decision. 

Notably, Tanzania, which normally produces 150,000 – 200,000 MT of desi chickpeas annually, may see a downward trend in production this year. According to some reports, farmers are more inclined towards producing pigeon peas due to more attractive prices. It’s still early to say exactly how much of each will be produced this year. 

Adding to this, Australia has regular customers of desi chickpeas in Bangladesh and Pakistan, who collectively import around 600,000 MT per year. According to Gaurav Jain of AgPulse Analytica, India’s desi chickpea imports this year will be less than 900,000 MT from all origins. 

The bottom line

Considering the improbability of the desi deficit being met, the price of desis continues to engage the trade’s attention. On June 10, GPC carried out a survey of 22 pulse trading experts to get their insights into the expected CNF price of Australia to India desi chickpeas by the end of July with most participants believing price would stay at current levels or go slightly higher.