December 19, 2023
With acreages and yields both predicted down 10% year-on-year, India is looking at a chana deficit. Gaurav Jain examines acreage data and production estimates to explore possible outcomes in 2024.
Chickpeas rank as one of the primary pulse crops in India, contributing approximately half of the total production. For perspective, the scale of chickpea cultivation in India surpasses the global production of peas. The country heavily relies on its chickpea crop to provide one of the most cost-effective sources of protein for the larger population.
Chickpea production gained momentum in 2018 following government restrictions on the import of several pulses. In response to these restrictions, farmers embraced chickpea cultivation, leading to increased acreage across various states, including Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh.
Over the past two years, there has been a noticeable decline in chickpea cultivation. This year, seeding progress is lagging by almost 10% compared to the previous year and it is likely that yields will also be around 10% less. Additionally, water reservoirs are not at full capacity, and rainfall has been sporadic throughout the season. Post-monsoon, showers have been inconsistent in many parts of the country, resulting in subpar soil moisture levels. These unfavorable conditions are expected to impact the yield prospects, and in the following analysis, we will explore how the production of chickpeas can be influenced under different scenarios.
According to the latest information provided by the agriculture ministry, chickpea cultivation at the national level has decreased by 10%. While Madhya Pradesh, a significant producer, has experienced a notable increase of 10%, most other states have witnessed a substantial decline. Maharashtra, which was the largest chickpea producer last year, has seen a decrease of 16% compared to the previous year. Other major chickpea-producing states Rajasthan, Karnataka, Gujarat, and Chhattisgarh have recorded declines of 12%, 21%, 22%, and 22%, respectively.
In an unexpected turn, Uttar Pradesh, a state known for tea and lentil production, has observed a rise in chickpea cultivation. By December 15, farmers in Uttar Pradesh had seeded 0.67 million hectares of land with chickpeas, indicating a 12% increase from the previous year.
By this time of the year, chickpea cultivation is usually still only ongoing in Maharashtra, while seeding activities for the rest of the country have already been completed. This trend is evident in the graph depicting the past couple of years, where farmers in Maharashtra planted chickpeas in over half a million hectares after December 15.
Our current estimate for the final acreage indicates a 10% decline at the national level. The only potential surprise could come from Maharashtra, although the likelihood of such an occurrence appears minimal.
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