April 9, 2026
Sam Peck of Jack’s Bean International breaks down the inevitable downturn in acres, a drastic drop in Mexican demand, and the logistics ripples already being felt after a month of ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
Black bean and pinto acreage is expected to drop sharply in 2026 as low grower prices and stronger corn and soy returns shift planting decisions.
“In general, we are most concerned with pintos and black beans, and their acres will be down. I believe it will be around 30% down for both types — some people are saying up to 50%, but I just don't believe that. I think navy beans are likely to be the same, maybe down a little. Light and dark red kidneys are going to be up, also. Seed sales are down for black beans and pintos, whereas light red kidney seed is pretty much sold out – that's how you know they'll be up.
It comes down to the price; bean grower prices have been at bottom for months. When you combine the upward movement of corn and soy with the grower prices for blacks and pintos, prices put corn and soy at even. If corn and soy are even, you might as well put them in, because you can plant those and go fishing for the summer! You can't do that with beans, as they take a lot more work and are more volatile at harvest.
If those prices back off over the next 30 days, we may see additional seed interest and additional plantings again, but that's hard to tell right now.”
“We're going to carry in around 100 KMT of black beans and 130 KMT of pintos. Do we really need to have the same amount of acres planted this year as last? Absolutely not.
The problem we have right now is that we've been shipping very little to Mexico. The Mexican government had an auction about six weeks ago on 90 KMT of pintos, and a product sold at 8 pesos/kg – the equivalent of $21/kg, cleaned and bagged. Last week we learned there's another 160 KMT – we think pintos and blacks, that the government is willing to sell at 14 pesos/kg. Now, this is all the product they supposedly gathered from growers with less than 38 ha of land. They paid them around 27 pesos/kg, so they're obviously not making money, but it shows that there's stock in Mexico to be marketed.
I had thought we would see interest from Mexico in the third quarter this year, but now I'm not so sold on that.”
“The Canadians are who really hurt us in Mexico this year. They undercut us at harvest time, anywhere between $25/MT to $55/MT. We couldn't compete, and Canada took a good chunk of the business that went across the border to Mexico in the early stages of the year. If they cut back their acres this year, then maybe they won't give away their product quite the same.
We were told that the Mexican government won't have any import duty on Argentinian beans. So I don't expect our black beans to keep shipping on a heavy basis down to Mexico, as their reservoirs seem to be okay in the irrigated areas, and if they get water, they will plant. It's the second year in a row that I don't expect a very good year for exports to Mexico.
The change in demand in Mexico has been a problem for my business, because we've always had a steady market in the Dominican Republic, but now I've got every Tom, Dick, and Harry trying to get business there. Big guys who have been shipping regularly to Mexico haven't had to worry about those of the markets, and black beans in particular.”
“It doesn't seem to me, based on what Marcelo Lüders was saying the other day, that Brazil will return to taking a regular 100 KMT of beans anytime soon.
Everything depends on what Brazil pulls from the Argentinians, because the Argentinians are going to go to our markets in Central America, Venezuela and Cuba, for example, with their black beans and cut us out. People thought that the regime change in Venezuela meant they would have to buy from us. But that was before Iran, so I think that idea sounds a bit iffy to me now.”
Trucking freight rates have reportedly doubled on certain US lanes.
“Navy beans seem to have sold out of packaging-quality, but they still have canning-quality navies available. Prices have increased a little bit because navy production was down compared to a couple of years ago.
The demand for Great Northern beans in Turkey or the Middle East just hasn't been there, and shipments to Europe have been limited, especially early on, when we had no idea if tariffs would be imposed. We still don't know if tariffs will happen, but it feels less inevitable than it did back in October/November when the US government was fighting with the EU.”
“We have an issue right now that there are lots of people who work in grains in the bigger companies who are treating the bean business like grains – they're not the same. For example, we have carry-in from black beans and pintos, so we need to be buying that up from growers so we can move it. But a couple of these big companies came out with new-crop grower prices for 2026 at $4-5/MT over what we have right now. What does that do? It shuts the grower off because he thinks the market is going to get better.
You don't have a lot of growers signing contracts this year. Fine – let them plant, as it is better for us. Barring a climactic disaster somewhere, I just don't see those prices happening.”
“Urea and nitrogen have doubled in price compared to last November. Most growers probably did have at least part of their needs taken care of, which makes a difference, but fuel prices here are making it difficult to move anything domestically. Trucking rates in certain lanes have doubled. Gas prices went up overnight by a dollar, even here in Colorado.
For example, if you delivered pricing on the school lunch program through to the end of this year, well, you're losing money now. You've got to be trucking this stuff, and rates aren't what anyone thought they were going to be – not even close. It's hurting processes involving government programs, domestic programs here. The big BNSF Railway will change its rate on May 31, so we'll see what they do.
It's hard to say how big the changes will be in shipping, but we've seen shipments to the Middle East slowing down, and I imagine other shipping lanes have to be doing something. We've already seen increases of $150 a container, more or less. One shipping line went up $500 a container, so we just switched to another line.”
“Michigan got a lot of moisture this year, whereas North Dakota didn't get so much — not that they depend on it, as they don't irrigate. It could be a wet spring ahead for all anyone knows, and we end up late getting planted, but down here in Colorado and Nebraska, our snowpack has been terrible. I think it's been the lowest in 30 years. Same for Montana. They were saying a couple of weeks ago that there may not be enough water to irrigate the fields past June.”
Pulses 26 / US bean market 2026 / pulse acreage outlook / Mexico bean demand / global pulse trade / bean prices US / agricultural logistics costs
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