2024 Global Yellow Pea Markets/
Stocks, Exports, Imports, Acreage, Price and Production Update

1.5 MMT of yellow peas has already entered India in April through its western ports with at least another 500,000 MT contracted to be brought in before the end of June. Industry sources suggest imports have led local prices to drop somewhat. 

India's own production of yellow peas is set to fall short of its earlier predictions of over 1 million MT by at least 200,000 MT, which some believe will lead the Indian government to bolster stocks and take sizable amounts of yellow peas from the market. 

The removal of tariffs on desi chickpeas into India may boost chickpea prices and strengthen prices for yellow peas, which are often used as a cheaper substitute. A senior official from the Indian Pulses and Grains Association (IPGA) has communicated that domestic Desi chickpea production will be almost 25% lower than the second advance estimate in July of 12.16 MMT. Recent estimates from traders suggest a more accurate figure would be between 8-9 MMT.

North America

A more bullish approach from India could benefit suppliers like Canada who are already set to supply new crop yellow peas to India in the fall, and have seen strong production estimates. Marlene Boersch of agricultural market intelligence provider, Mercantile Consulting, puts the 2023 MY yellow pea crop at 2.6 MMT, whereas she estimates 2024 production at 3.2 MMT at this stage of the cycle. This level of production would represent a more than 23% jump YoY. Other estimates put the crop at as much as 2.8 MMT.

Soil moisture appears adequate for Canadian peas after consistent rainfall, but maxing out yields will still depend on rains throughout June and July. According to an industry source who spoke to the GPC last week, yellow pea prices were hovering at around $435-440/MT for delivered at frontier (DAF) shipments in May and June. 

The USA is expected to supplement its rises in domestic yellow pea consumption with imports from Canada, as local production is predicted to decline. Based on multiple industry sources, overall US field pea acreage looks set to drop between 7-12% YoY. One source has suggested that yellow pea acreage could drop by as much as 25% from 820,000 MT down to 760,000 MT.. 

Russia

Russian peas are set to continue their expansion, having exported more than 2 million MT of peas during this market year. July will see the harvest of the new crop which had been predicted to grow 7% YoY if in good climate conditions, but ongoing dry weather could reduce yield significantly. 2.2 million ha of peas have been planted, which could mean a production of up to 4.5 million MT. According to an industry source, this figure could be lowered by 15-20% if dryness continues. 

As shown in the GPC weekly pulse price update, Russian yellow pea prices remain firm at approximately US$475 CNF to both Pakistan and India and. Prices for containers of yellow peas to China have been seen at US$460 for the week ending May 10.

China

Chinese yellow pea inventory is high at around 410,000 MT after a year of strong imports – much of which of Russian origin. Sources within the industry report new crop shipments of Canadian yellow peas have been put on order for shipment in September/October at approximately US$380-390 CNF. 

While local Chinese prices for yellow peas are currently stable,  when exports roll out over the coming months and supplies are reduced, prices may fluctuate. Many traders will be waiting to see if China sets its sights on big bulk imports this year, as this could lead to a positive shift in global demand and prices.